The biggest impacts will undoubtedly be felt by universities within the US itself, with a big question mark currently hanging over what the effects will be on incoming international students  – as well as domestic students.

With the UK sector grappling with a recent lull in international student numbers, Trump’s return to the White House has piqued the interest of admissions and marketing teams eager to understand what his policies might mean for global student mobility. Meanwhile, countries like Australia and Canada are in a slightly different position, as they enter into the second Trump presidency with international student caps.

Predicting how Trump’s second term will unfold is a complex task; with his policy shifts and bold, often unpredictable stances keeping observers on their toes in the past. However, by reflecting on the impacts of his first term, his proposed policies and wider international relations, institutions across the globe can begin to gauge what the coming years might hold.

Let’s take a look at what could lie ahead:

A look back at Trump’s first term

When trying to assess what could be on the horizon for Trump’s second stint in the White House, a good place to start is by looking at the impact of his first term on international student mobility.

Stricter immigration controls marred his time in office, including the infamous “Travel Ban 3.0”, which effectively restricted US access for students from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, North Korea, and Venezuela. There was also a surge in visa denials and a 12% drop in international student enrolments across the board. While Trump has not indicated an immediate return to such policies, his unpredictability and past actions suggest a cautious approach for prospective international students, especially those from Islamic countries.

The last Trump administration complicated the application process for international students. Denial rates for H-1B visas spiked while Requests for Evidence (RFEs) increased from 6% in 2015 to 30% by 2020. With international students often wanting to remain in their country of study, this made the US much less appealing as an option. The 2024 campaign included rhetoric on reducing visa durations and eligibility, which could again prompt students to seek destinations where visa pathways are more predictable.

Changing study abroad interests: What early data tells us

Averting our gaze back to Trump’s second presidential term, early data is suggesting an increase in interest among US students wanting to study abroad. According to StudyPortals, there was a 530% jump in interest for the UK and an astounding 1,298% increase for Ireland immediately after the election. This uptick suggests that US students may be seeking international alternatives, driven by a political climate that feels uncertain domestically. 

In terms of how the rest of the world is feeling about America as a study destination – it seems as if it’s a mixed bag. Recent IDP research reports that despite concerns, prospective international students have shown indifference toward the election results, with the US remaining a top study destination alongside Australia. Yet other sources such as QS have indicated that there has been a 10% decrease in overall interest in studying in the US. This mixed data suggests that it’s a little too early to tell what the true impact will be, but perceptions will most certainly start shifting when policy changes are introduced.

US-China relations: The impact on Chinese student mobility

The biggest geopolitical challenge Trump is likely to face will be his stance on China. He has been quite vocal about his proposal of tariffs on Chinese imports and stricter trade regulations, with trade tensions rising between the two nations for some time.

Chinese officials claimed earlier this year that the US government has been less welcoming to Chinese students as of late, pointing to a Trump-era order. Reports have surfaced of Chinese students being questioned or sent home upon arrival in the US, with a Chinese  Foreign Ministry spokesperson calling out the US as taking “selective, discriminatory and politically motivated law enforcement actions against Chinese students”.

Many Chinese students are therefore concerned about being caught in the heightened geopolitical tensions, with others fearing visa rejections altogether. If these policies and attitudes towards Chinese students were to intensify, we could see China urging students to consider alternatives to the US. With Australia and Canada both now capping international student numbers, the stable policies and inclusive campus environments of UK and EU universities may benefit from the offspill of demand.

Changes to the US Department of Education & broader policy changes

A major domestic education policy that Trump has proposed is the dismantling of the US Department of Education, advocating instead for a return to state-level control and potential changes to federally funded programs. If realized, these changes could further complicate the landscape for incoming international students into the US, with alternative study options like the UK becoming relatively more attractive due to its cohesive, centralized education policies.

Among other policies, Trump’s agenda for higher education also includes creating a new, free university called the “American Academy”, which he has said would be funded by “taxing, fining and suing” private universities. Meanwhile, NAFSA has advocated for educating the new administration on the value of international education, emphasising its role in research, workforce development, and national security. Industry leaders across the US have also stressed the need for clear policies to maintain US global competitiveness in attracting international students.

With talk of curbing diversity and inclusion initiatives in US schools and promoting “patriotic” values, Trump’s education policy may alienate students who seek an open and culturally enriching campus environment. These policies, if enacted, could affect international perceptions, particularly among students prioritising a progressive and inclusive campus culture.

Key takeaways for US universities

With Trump’s second term on the horizon, US universities face a dual challenge: retaining domestic students who are increasingly interested in studying abroad and continuing to attract international students despite potential policy hurdles. 

Retaining US students

Post-election data suggests a surge in US students exploring study-abroad opportunities, mainly driven by domestic political uncertainties. To retain these students, US HEIs should consider integrating international exposure into their own degree offerings.

By partnering with international universities to create exchange programs, dual degrees, and short-term study-abroad initiatives, this will allow students to gain global experiences without fully disconnecting from their education in the US. Market the advantages of blended programs that combine the prestige of a US degree with the enrichment of international exposure.

If education policies such as an enhanced “patriotic” curricula and reduced diversity initiatives were to materialize, this could polarize domestic student populations. By tailoring communication to diverse domestic audiences, addressing institutional commitments to academic freedom would be easier to communicate to the students who consider this to be a priority. By promoting transparency in campus policies, especially around inclusivity and free speech, trust with these prospective students can be built.

Attracting international students

If Trump’s past immigration policies were to come to fruition once again, including increased visa denials and stricter eligibility criteria, this may create concerns among international students about their ability to study and thrive in the US. Institutions must counteract these perceptions with a strong focus on inclusivity and academic prestige in their messaging.

But remember to also show, not just tell of the support on offer. Expand support services to reassure international students and their families, including visa assistance, on-campus inclusion programs, and robust career placement services.

Embed testimonials and success stories from international alumni into campaigns, especially of those who have achieved significant career milestones in the US, to build confidence in the continued value of a US degree and the opportunities that are still available.

Key takeaways for UK & Australian universities

As the US approaches the inauguration of the new Trump administration, an opportunity lies ahead for global universities to pre-emptively respond to the shifts in international student mobility.

Capitalize on growing interest from Chinese students

By proactively targeting Chinese students who might reconsider US options due to anticipated immigration and educational policy changes, UK and Australian HEIs can instead be top of mind. Build campaigns around trusted platforms in China, including local social media, partnerships with reputable agencies, and influencer endorsements to amplify your appeal. When doing so, bear in mind that Chinese students typically begin researching their study options early, so targeting a younger student demographic will see long-term results.

Leverage the US market for outbound interest

With increasing disillusionment among US students regarding domestic education, there’s an opportunity for international universities to attract this audience group from across the globe. By emphasising the cost-effectiveness of a UK or Australian degree as an alternative to the high tuition fees in the US, this demographic will likely view these study options as a valuable educational investment.

Campaigns will see the most success by focusing on blue states, where it’s likely that there will be more students who are more open to leaving the US.

Invest in messaging around inclusivity and academic freedom

When targeting Chinese students, it needs to be remembered that they most likely do not feel welcome in the US because of where they come from. A study choice that values cultural and ideological diversity will therefore be top of mind. HEI’s should address common concerns about safety and support systems in their messaging. A welcoming and friendly campus, no matter where you are from, is going to resonate with this student audience group the most.

A different messaging approach will be needed for US students looking to study abroad. An emphasis on the academic freedoms that exist on your campus, against the backdrop of potential US restrictions on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), will reinforce your country as a balanced and open academic environment.

The Hybrid team will be closely monitoring this situation as it evolves, keeping watch of the potential impacts of a second Trump presidency on the HE sector. If your institution is looking to stay ahead of the curve when it comes to shifting international student interests and mobility, a trusted and experienced partner could help. Get in touch with our team today.